COVID 19 - ITALY vs KERALA

We are doing here a comparative study between Italy the country and Kerala the state.  While comparing the land area Italy is much larger than Kerala but in the case of population Kerala is about half of Italy. When it is density of population Kerala is more than four times of Italy. Now we shall focus the comparison to Covid 19. The virus was first confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31st January 2020 whereas the same was confirmed in Kerala/India on 30th January 2020.

While the total infection in Italy is 2,50,566, it is 34,331 in Kerala. Death parity between the two is quite huge . When it is 35,205 in Italy it is 108 in Kerala. Active cases are more or less same at both; Italy - 13,263 and Kerala 12,347.

Growth pattern in Italy:
Feb 16 - 3, Feb 25 - 323, March 2 - 2,038, March 16 - 27,997, April 17 - 1,72,426, May 17 - 2,25,429, June 17 - 2,37,836, July 17 - 2,43,988, August 10 - 2,50,566

Growth pattern in Kerala:
Feb 4 - 3, March 19 - 28, March 29 - 202, April 19 - 401, May 21 - 690, June 12 - 2,322, July 15 - 9,553, July 30 - 22,303, August 6 - 30,449, August 10 - 34,331

While going through all the above one can safely reach to the conclusion that Kerala has done well to defend the pandemic so far. Regarding the future of the spread of the virus there are varying opinions. While it is tapering down in Italy it is on the upward trend in Kerala. Some say the spread will reach the height by mid September and then it may come down.

KV George
kvgeorgein@gmail.com









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