HOW LONG COVID19 MAY CONTINUE IN INDIA

India is now the third largest Covid19 affected country in the world. Covid19 cases reported in India for the past 24 hours is 54,865. The total cases as on 2nd August is 17,51,919. How long this pandemic may continue in India and what would be the further impacts are the two points we are discussing here. There are different opinions by scientists across the world.

The Levitt's Model proposed by Nobel laureate Prof Michael Levitt says the pandemic would taper down by October, cases will become sporadic and mortalities will be considerably low. The Covid19 pandemic will end in most of India by two and a half months, says Bhaskaran Raman and his team fro IIT Bombay, basing their calculations on Levitt's model. According to the model in around two and a half months, or October to be precise, the pandemic would taper down in India and come to an end. It is to be noted that the term 'pandemic-end' does not mean the disease will vanish, but rather will be sporadic while the number of mortalities would become considerably low.

According to the model, the pandemic in Chennai is expected to end in about a month from now.

In Mumbai, the pandemic is expected to end in about two weeks from now. The city currently has around 24,307 active cases and recovery in about 67,830.

According to the model, the worst seems to be over for Gujarat.

According to the model, the pandemic is just beginning in Karnataka.

According to the findings by Times Now Digital/timesnownews.com, in Kerala, the pandemic is projected to peak on August 10 and end on October 15. In Rajasthan, the pandemic is projected to peak on August 15 and end in October 10.

*Indebted to an article by Venkataraghavan Srinivasan and report of Times Now Digital/timesnownews.com

KV George
kvgeorgein@gmail.com



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