COVID19 PREDICTIONS

  

1. Singapore University

India is likely to see the last of the Covid 19 cases by 26 July, according to a team of researchers from Singapore. The team from the Singapore University of Technology and Design used  an artificial intelligence algorithm to make data-driven predictions of when the Covid 19 pandemic will end in 131 countries.

(The predictions were uploaded on the university's website on 26 April.)

2. Protiviti and Times Network, Mumbai

The coronavirus pandemic in India may peak in early to mid-May, accordingly to projections in a study conducted by global consulting firm Protiviti and Times Network. The study predicts the number of cases will range from 30,000 to a worst case scenario of about 2,86,000. About 30% of the affected people may require intensive care facilities.

3. ICMR

As many as 348 million Indians may be infected by the novel coronavirus. The pandemic (Covid19) may eventually leave more than 0.7 million dead in a worst-case scenario, according to mathematical modelling by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)

(This is the introductory write up of the report that was last updated on 24 March, 2020)

4. IIM - Rohtak

"We predict ... that the number of Covid19 cases will increase exponentially in India to approximately 13,000 cases by 15 April 2020 and to more than 1,50,000 cases by the first week of May 2020," said a report prepared by a research team at IIM - Rohtak.

5. WHO

"So, when I give an optimistic timeline, it's if you were doing all of that. Now, most countries are scrambling just to get the big measures in place just to treat the most severe patients. And that's what worries me a little bit in the West, that it might take a little bit longer to take the heat out of this thing. But I always want to be careful because we're dealing with a biological process that's happening in the context of changes in seasons and other factors that just make some of this, frankly, unpredictable. The key thing right now is doing as much as you can to save lives,  it means training people. But it also means trying to slow down that outbreak at the same time."

(Quoted from the talk of the Senior Advisor to the Director General of the WHO, Bruce Aylward)

KV George

kvgeorgein@gmail.com