COVID 19 AND INDIAN ECONOMY

        (GDP growth rate of India)

Covid 19 is an eye opener for many states of India. Let us first have look at our population growth during the past two decades. 

(In millions)

2010 - 1186, 2012 - 1213, 2014 - 1239

2016 - 1269, 2018 - 1298, 2020 - 1320

Percentage of growth during the decade - 10.15

Yearly growth percentage:

2015 - 1.12, 2016 - 1.10, 2017 - 1.07

2018 - 1.04, 2019 - 1.02

The GDP per capita in USD:

2010 - 1357.6,  2012 - 1469.2

2014 - 1640.2,  2026 - 1874.2

2018 - 2104.2

The GDP per capita in India is equivalent to 17 percent of the world average.

As per the IMF's World Economic Outlook for 2020, the per capita PPP-adjusted GDP for India was was estimated to be USD 9,027.

24.3% of the population earned less than USD 1(PPP around USD 0.25 in normal terms) a day in 2005, down from 42.1% in 1981.

According to 2011 census about 22% of the population was poor and has become 17% in 2019.

However as per an unconfirmed reports the division is:

Lower Middle Class - 45%

Upper Middle Class - 12%

Lower Class              - 17%

BPL                            - 20%

Upper Class              - 04 %

Super Rich Class      - 02%

This can be said as the general state of population and economics of our country.

Another major aspect in this regard to be seen as China and India together currently account for 38% of the world population with 1.43 billion and 1.37 billion respectively. At current rate of growth India is projected to overtake China by 2027, according to UN's 2019 World Population Prospects report.

Here comes the main issue, the disparity in economic distribution. While the GDP is appears to be presentable to the world, the pci thereby attained may also made to be manageable, around 60 percent of the people are not the beneficiaries of the GDP account rather their pci remains much lower.

It is necessary, therefore, for the central government to take all the state governments in confidence. The states should be properly guided in the fields of infrastructure, industries, exports, tourism etc. and to be ensured that the states attain the required economic level to meet its expenditure at least with a balanced outlook.

Fortunately or unfortunately Covid19 is now forcing us to restructure our economy. Most important aspect in this regard is even distribution among our people. Even though we project a good GDP account and pci, ppp figures to the world,  a good amount of our population is remaining far away from these statistical data. What both the Central and the state governments together to focus on increasing the earning of about 40% of the population. Due to the ongoing rift between US and its allies  with China new investors are reluctant to put more money in China and further to this some existing companies are known to be moving away from there. According to recent media reports around thousand investers are looking for ideal location for their ventures. Vietnam, Thailand and India are the prime locations for them. What attractions we can offer them is going to be evaluated. Both central and state governments should discuss this matter on top most priority and find ways and means to bag the best possible.

KV George

kvgeorgein@gmail.com